Transformative artificial intelligence (TAI) - machines capable of performing virtually all economically valuable work - may gradually erode the two main tax bases that underpin modern tax systems: ...

The own-wage elasticity (OWE) of employment estimated using minimum wage increases provides an economically meaningful measure of the policy on jobs. We discuss how to interpret the magnitude of the ...

GLP-1 medications generate large weight loss and may also alter social and economic outcomes. Using the Understanding America Study, I compare women starting GLP-1s for weight loss with matched women ...

Large language models (LLMs) are lowering the entry barriers to working with exciting data sources that used to require strong data science skills, such as handwritten ledgers, text, images, or sound ...

Production is a sequence of steps that can be executed (1) manually, (2) augmented with AI, or (3) fully automated within contiguous AI-executed steps called “chains.” Firms optimally bundle steps ...

What information do policymakers need to design Pigouvian taxes or subsidies? Standard logic suggests that it is sufficient to know the size of the externality and unnecessary to know about quantities ...

We develop a tractable model to study how AI and digital platforms impact the information ecosystem. News producers — who create truthful or untruthful content that becomes a public good or bad — earn ...

Mutual funds approaching the IRS 50/5/10 portfolio concentration limit trim large positions, reduce equity exposure, and subsequently underperform.

New AI tools have the potential to change the way workers perform and learn, but little is known about their impacts on the job. In this paper, we study the staggered introduction of a generative ...

This paper studies how geopolitical risk shapes financial fragmentation and international risk-sharing, using bilateral official lending data from 1910 to 2024. We document that when geopolitical risk ...

This article introduces the evidence and associated modeling frameworks contemporary economists use to understand the effects of trade and trade policy on labor markets, with a particular emphasis on ...

We ask how far the choice of which moments to match can push estimates in misspecified structural models. The answer is: very far. Under regularity conditions, an adversarial researcher informed about ...